White Plains, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

021
FXUS61 KOKX 161457
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple surface troughs move through today and Saturday, followed
by a cold frontal passage Saturday night. A secondary cold front
moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Low pressure
lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through
Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in
control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts
the area Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Any lingering fog burns off into late morning. A remnant MCS
working east through Pennsylvania as of 14Z should begin to
weaken as it approaches over the next couple of hours with cloud
cover in place locally helping to limit destabilization and
there`s also a lack of a significant forcing. More likely, a
period of showers, with potential for embedded thunderstorms,
moves through portions of the region early this afternoon,
primarily for the LoHud Valley, NE NJ and NYC. Severe threat
looks more pronounced just to the south and west across the
eastern Mid Atlantic, but can`t rule out a strong thunderstorm
surviving into the local region. Previous discussion follows.

The upper level trough can now be seen to our east on latest
satellite imagery. Heights may briefly rise aloft heading into
the early morning hours. At the surface, a very weak pressure
gradient is leading to calm to light winds. This and the
moisture available from several days on onshore flow has
resulted in fog around the area. With the fog being locally
dense, have issued an SPS through 13z.

The convection forecast today and Saturday continues to be very
tricky. There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
with different forcing mechanisms. The first chance will be with
the ongoing MCS moving into western NY and western PA. CAMs are
not all that excited about this feature, but can not rule out
some of this making it into far western portions of our area.
The broken line is moving into a less supportive environment
and if any of the activity does reach our area it will likely be
just showers with potential for isolated thunder. Have moved
timing of PoPs back two hours as timing now looks closer to
after 14z.

As we head into the afternoon, shortwave energy approaches and
instability increases as we warm to the upper 70s with mid 60s
dewpoints. Some showers and thunderstorms likely spark just west
and move towards the area. Highest chances are once again north
and west of NYC, but can not rule out a shower or thunderstorm
anywhere. Some organized convection is possible with this
afternoon activity given increased instability and shear along
with better curvature in the low levels on model hodographs. At
this time the main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts
or large hail, again mainly north and west of NYC. This
activity will decrease heading into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low continues approaching on Saturday with shortwave
energy ejecting out ahead of it. Similar forecast challenges in the
morning hours as there may be some sort of approaching convection
left over from what happens in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region tonight. Then, once again, the area destabilizes ahead of a
cold front. While CAMs are not overly excited about this either,
there is potential for more widespread convection over the area
Sunday afternoon given stronger forcing, instability(MLCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg) and shear(0-6km bulk shear around 40kt).
This will also lead to more widespread chances of storms
reaching severe thresholds. The SPC has placed the western half
of the area in a slight risk. As of right now, the main threat
is damaging wind gusts. Model hodographs will have to be watched
as there is some indication of favorable low level shear and an
isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Latest Nam3km and HRRR
show around 150 m2/s2 of effective inflow layer SRH.

The cold front moves through Saturday night and then a secondary cold
front moves through Sunday and Sunday night. PoPs lower
significantly, but there will be additional slight chances of
showers across the interior Sunday afternoon with the upper low
above us.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure centered over or near
Hudson Bay in Canada gradually noses into the area Monday into
Tuesday night, keeping the area dry. To our northeast, low pressure
will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian
Maritimes through. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an
increased pressure gradient through Monday.

A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or
Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the
vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers
during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms.
Model guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of
this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into
Thursday as a result.

Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period,
especially towards Wednesday and Thursday with clouds and rain
limiting any heating. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and by Thursday, with will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Overnight lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak low pressure with a surface trough near the area today,
followed by a warm front moving in Saturday. Cold front follows
for Saturday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms move in going into early this
afternoon. KSWF, KEWR, and KTEB highest chances. Lesser chances
of thunderstorms to the east. Not much rain at all expected for
KISP, KBDR and no rain expected at KGON.

Lingering MVFR to IFR conditions will improve to VFR for some
time this afternoon before lowering again tonight to IFR and
below with redevelopment of low clouds and fog.

Light winds (at or under 5 kts) with variable direction for
some terminals initially with otherwise a southerly flow near
5-10 kts expected through today. Winds decrease again tonight
into early Saturday and become light and variable direction
once again.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief TSRA possible for KJFK and KLGA early this afternoon.

Timing of IFR and MVFR changes could be a few hours off from
TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Tonight: IFR or lower.

Saturday: IFR to start, improving to MVFR mid-morning, then becoming
VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of
thunderstorms with MVFR conditions.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20-
25kt.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog on the waters burns off into late morning. Can`t
rule out a period of showers, with potential for embedded
thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, the western
LI Sound, and ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. Fog
returns tonight, potentially becoming dense again.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Sunday for the
most part. There looks to be brief potential for 25 kt gusts
Sunday afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, western Sound and
western Ocean. During this time, seas on the ocean could also
approach 5 ft. Outside of this, there is potential for showers
and thunderstorms each day, with potential for severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will be locally
higher in any storms.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria for Monday. However,
there is a low to medium chance of 25 kt wind gusts over the ocean
waters with low pressure over the Gulf of Maine creating an
increased pressure gradient. Thereafter winds and waves should
remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure
gradient across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy downpours are possible with any thunderstorms this
afternoon, and again Saturday aft/eve. While the overall flash
flood threat is low, the brief heavy rainfall could lead to
minor nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

There are no other hydrologic concerns through the end of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM/JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT